stakes meeting today. obama warned about loose talk of war, but will the israelis feel there is any time left? it's a very busy monday. this is "the daily rundown." i'm chuck todd, let's get to the first read the morning. conservatives are coalescing around his candidacy. in the words of our pollsters, corrosive to the brand and the party's overall chances. romney has the support of 38% of likely republican voters in the new "wall street journal" poll. the best standing we ever recorded for him. santorum trails at 32%. gingrich and paul tied at 13%. support for romney is up 10 points and 15 points since the end of last year. she performing better with the parts that have been most resistance. we trail among tea partiers and the conservative voters.

romney is backing nearly double since january up from 21% to 35%. nearly twice as many voter who is call themselves very conservative support of candidacy. we asked the voters to identify the top positive and negative quality of each of the candidates. voters like romney's knowledge of the issues where he scores best. he said his biggest negative is he waffles on issue. santorum is damaged on electability. he cannot be a strong opponent against president obama. overall the bitter nomination fight is taking a toll on the brand. 40% of adults said it made them feel less favorable. only 12% have a more favorable impression. that is upside down even among republicans. 55 percent per of all adults and 45% of independents and 35% of

republicans believe that the democratic party did a better job in appealing to people who are not their hard core supporters. overall just 26% said the republican party does a better job. we will have much more about other evident that indicates these last six peeks of the primary fight has damaged the views of the republicans overall and frankly of this election. when it ams can to the president, the poll cone tans mostly good news. they are up to 50%, the highest since the death of osama bin laden. voters are feeling more optimistic about the economy and where the country is headed. 33% say we are on the right track. the fifth straight poll where the number improved and the americans believe it will get better. 40% believe it will improve and believe it will get worse. the number is the highest we recorded. 57% say that the worst of the recession is behind us.

that improved outlook is helping the president's general election prospects. a matchup with the president leading romney by six points. 60 to 44. he leads santorum, gingrich and paul. there is obviously caveats here. there is still a majority who think we are on the wrong track. what was interested and the four matchups we did with the president, more than half of those we surveyed picked at least one republican during the matchup. part of the reason is ron paul does well with many of the younger voters when matched up against president obama. in this consumer tuesday, results from another republican contest. romney won the caucuses in washington state with 38% of the vote. paulpicture. no delegates were awardsed, but ohio is the perception that

turned into a must win for santorum. a merit poll over the weekend shows the race is razor-tight. mitt romney narrowed the lead to two points. that gp is within the poll's margin of error. unlike in earlier contests, romney is not running up the score among those who already voted. he leads among early voters, 39-35. on sunday, santorum tried to manage, but may be out of hand with expectations. >> it's a tough state for us only because of the fact that with a money disadvantage, we have a great grass roots campaign. it's harder when you have two conservative candidates running in the race. >> in the matchup and our national poll, two places where santorum does better than romney are among republicans in the midwest and republicans with less than a full four-year college education.

that's where he should be able to do well. there is no excuse for him to lose at this point. it's ready made for him. since they both start their days in the buckeye state. they made a pitch and they believe they can win. tennessee was full of local flavor. >> this place has a special feeling in my heart because when i grew up, i was thinking about davy crock et. remember the song born on a mountain top in tennessee. greenest state. raised in the woods in the land of the free, killed him a bear when he was only 3. >> he spent time in georgia, specifically the atlanta metro area. he stated his future in the race. >> this raised a lot of money spent against me and i think we will win decisively. it is the biggest state with

delegates and very hard to not carry their home state and continue to move forward. >> finally virginians will have two choices. mitt romney and ron paul. the rest failed to collect enough signatures to get on the ballot. romney leads 69% to 26%. they helped romney enormousous. we conducted a what if and romney's lead was cut in half. santorum was 28%. keep this in mind. if romney gets 50% against all and wins all the congressional distincts, he will win all 46 delegates. count on romney winning all 46 on tuesday in the state of virginia. fears that israel is moving closer to a strike on tehran's nuclear facilities are raising the stakes for today's summit between president obama and benjamin netanyahu.

he told the group to standoff and it is playing in the hands of the iranians. >> already there is too much loose talk of war. over the last few weeks such talk only benefitted the iranian government. now is not the time for bluster. now is the time to let our increased pressure sink in and to sustain the broad international coalition we built. having said that, iran's leader should have no doubt about the resolve of the united states. the leaders should understand i don't have a policy of containment, but to prevent iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. >> there it is. containment is the key word. it is this not good enough for the president's republican opponents in a sunday campaign. mitt romney warned that a vote for president obama would pave the way for a nuclear iran. >> it's pretty straight forward

in my view. if barack obama gets reelected, iran will have a nuclear weapon and the world will change if that's the case. >> joining me now is david sayinger. nobody cover this is more closely than you. you are writing the book about various things when it comes to iran and the ambition for a nuclear weapon. the president laying out a stance. he basically -- he wanted to get rid of any notion that somehow his policy would ever be containment? >> that's right. he did it in an interview with jeffrey goldberg and did it jen in his speech. that's interesting because it resolves a debate that took place in the obama white house in at least the first year or year and a half. >> there were advocates? >> there were some who said look, you may not be able to stop iran from getting a nuclear weapon despite all the other things you do. if you are not willing to go to war to stop them, you would

begin to think out ahead towards a containment policy. that's still the truth. it's not entirely clear that iran could necessarily be stopped. it could be delayed and the program has been delayed. history suggests that country who is want a nuclear weapon, think about pakistan and north korea. think about israel. >> your only chances for them to voluntarily stop. >> south africa and another good example. today with this meeting, with this off the table, what is going on and what do you expect to go on behind the scenes? is this a path where the president is trying to get the to back off threats when it comes to backing off not just the threats, but any plans of hitting iran in the next three months? >> the president is looking for time. when he is trying to convince

the prime minister netanyahu of, that there is time to manage this. you heard that line slip into the speech where the president said we have time for diplomacy. now, what's that based on? it's based on the american assumption that if iran decided to break out and get a weapon, they would protect them and it would be a year producing the fuel and another year to make the weapon and plenty of time to deal with it. the israeli argument is we may not know. there is another argument who said there is a lot of instability and syria next door. they have the support of saudi arabia and the other gulf states to do this. they are in some ways if not now. when would they have another opening like this where maybe the fallout wouldn't be as bad as the united states thinks. >> president obama's response to that and i'm guessing that his

response would be you know one of the remarkable things about the arab spring is it's not about the united states and largely hasn't been about israel. if you took military action, you might make it about israel. it's another reason in the o bam am ledger of things to slow this down. in the end it could be that all that prime minister netanyahu is trying to do is trying to ramp up the talk of war to keep the pressure on for sanctions and for more covert action. >> do you buy this notion that actually they are working more in tandem than people realize and it is in the diplomatic interest of the united states to say let netanyahu keep talking about this. keep saber rattling. it's helpful in this process and the israelis know this too? >> there is always an element of

that in the u.s.-israel relationship. as issued in the speech when the president referred to the dangers of loose talk of war, he made the point that all of the loose talk has driven up the price of oil. what's that do? it makes the sanctions legsz effective. this economic sanctions against iran are reducing. >> he wants to see them back. >> he does. >> given who i played earlier with mitt romney and how he responded, the box it looks like the president is going to put them, he is referring to the candidates. >> wight openly. >> you expect them to be more hawkish on this than the president. >> i think they are. if you are a candidate, if you don't want to manage the situation or think about what the blow back would be. if you go to war. it's to the advantage of the republican candidates. you go far right on this and say

let israel do whatever they think they need to do. president obama is in a more complicated situation. you have to think not only about the day that iran gets hit. >> very quickly, he lectured the president publicly. clearly not a love fest or a like fest. today we will never have a love fest between these two men, but fair to see we will see a like fest? >> i think you will see everybody on their best behavior and my guess is no lectures. >> ed sayinger from the "new york times." nobody covers it better than you. >> thank you, sir. >> thank you. >> many more surprises from the brand-new "wall street journal" poll. just out this morning, we hold you the toll they are taking and now we will show you how bad the party's image has gotten and the comments with the last four losing nominees and a shift in gay marriage. today we will show you how much

is at stakes on the dell great front and how europe tuesday got to be so super. first a look ahead to the president's schedule as you can see, it's all about one meeting and that's with netanyahu. i don't think we will need history lessons today about israel. you are watching "the daily rundown" on msnbc. not in this economy. we also have zero free time, and my dad moving in. so we went to fidelity. we looked at our family's goals and some ways to help us get there. they helped me fix my economy, the one in my house. now they're managing my investments for me.

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>> republican primaries so far are doing more harm than good for the candidates and the party as a whole. the "wall street journal" poll seems to shatter hopes that republicans have been expanding their base for november.

55% of voters say that democrats do a better job at reaching out to people who are not hard core supporter. that's more than double the republican number. republicans themselves are now seeing the primary process as they drain on the party. 23% say it's given them a less favorable impress, a reversal from january. 29% said the primaries had a positive impact. the republican pollster, welcome to you both. bill, i want to put up two more numbers. you are were saying these were the numbers to explain how this process of the american psychy. your interest level in the elections, rank it one to ten. the percentage of folks who gave us a nine or ten it was 67%. in march 2012, 59%. an-point drop in just over a

month. enthusiasm for the elections. in october of 2011, pift% said they were and 38% said less enthusiastic. now it's 46-40. this is among all voters. >> i think that 50 it's a reminder that 2000it was an extraordinary election in terms of interest. this is more traditional. we do this number a lot and it's really, really unusual to see interest in election drop and it does say that people now are not turned on by what they are watching and just -- we were treating to an electorate who said they are not happy with what they are watching and they want a different brand of dialogue and very different type of election style. >> diving in deeper on mitt romney, if he appears to be poised in this eve of super tuesday to be the nominee to

beat, here's his personal rating. 28-39, worse among independents. 22% give him as positive rating. i picked the last four losing nominees. the winning nominees were better. cane, kerry, and dole. all of them on super tuesday and their respective super tuesdays were in better shape than mitt romney. >> one, the republicans are disspirited over everything that happened. we ask an open ended question. were they allowed to use their own words and they used everything from joke to spirited to unhappy with everything that's happening. >> these ares? >> talking about the process. the second thing is that mitt romney has been caught in a vice. he has been trying to go to the right to hold on to that social base and do what he can. as he has done that, he lost the

middle. he lost the women and the independents. he has a lot of work to do with this game. >> the number one issue over the last ten days that maybe some would believe has impacted this a little bit when it comes to this conversation is this issue about contra exception and health insurance coverage. we asked it two ways to show how the messaging can have an impact. straight up i require them for birth control and contraception favor 53% and oppose 33%. when you remind people that it includes the morning after pill, suddenly that advantage of being in favor of health insurance coverage to require birth control coverage becomes 43% to 43%. is this a case where the republican message is just poor on this issue?

>> actually this data goes beyond that. what would happen if they require catholic hospitals and religious institutions to provide morning after pills and contraception. you have 33% favor and 48 or 49% opposed. it's a reminder that the issue of contra acceptings are resolved. it's a long-term benefit that have been able to be approved, but there is substantial caution about whether the institutions should be required even having the health insurer provide the benefits and the institutions. it's a reminder that the date is clear. it's not about contraception, but the role of the government requiring them to make this coverage available especially for something like the morning after pill. >> we have evidence to show that clearly this contra accepting is taking a toll with republicans among women.

you did something and you pointed out data looking at control of of congress among the suburban women in the summer of 2011. republicans led. this is the swing vote in american politics. 46-39. today combining january and march data. democrats. let me do the math. 18-point swing. >> as bill well knows, the republicans are being contracted in terms of santorum and in terms of rush limbaugh and in terms of the congressional group. it's an election that is about the economy and talking about social issues. they are in trouble. they are hurting themselves with whites and white women. the whole spectrum. >> before i let you go. gay marriage. we haven't texted it in a while. a remarkable shift in 2 1/2 years. in october of 2009 on the issue

of same-sex marriage, more people said they were opposed than supported it by a 49-40 margin. now basically theal has flipped. 49% favor and 40% oppose. you have been stunned by this reversal. >> yeah. peter and i spent our careers tracking attitudes about social and political issues and this is a radical change about a very, very emotional issue. what you are watching is the aging end of an electorate. 57% support and the only people who oppose are people over 65. these are issues that are shaped by age and by exposure to people who are gay. as that fight comes part of the culture of younger people, the attitudes are very, very different and you are watching a startlying transformation and a

very complex social issue. >> movements with two areas of the african-americans and blue collar americans both show dramatic jumps. >> even in your figure, years ago, 2-1 against same-sex marriage. now they are in favor and you have seen it with every group throughout the electorate except tea party people and those over 65. change in the world. >> a lot more to get to. you didn't even touch on foreign policy. we have to get you back. thank you both. >> next a fight over voting rights. charpton joins me next and he is on the route from selma to montgomery. name the state that has been the birth place of the greatest number of presidents who were born as american citizens. the first correct answer. [ male announcer ] this is lois.

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>> african-american leaders are creating a new assault on minority voting rights. al sharpton o is helping to lead the march and the host of politics nation here on msnbc and joins me from along the route. route 80 in alabama. let me start with simply -- i know you have done this march before. what is it that goes through your head as you do this march? >> annually, john lewis who was

beating on this bridge 47 years ago brings us all across this bridge and we all thought as thousands did yesterday. the difference is while we are continuing to march on to montgomery is that this is the first time in 47 years we have seen such a frontal attack on the voting rights act. literally million people are caught into the institute and may be disenfranchised from voting because of the laws and ending early voting in some states and because of the same-day registration and because of other voting requirements that have changed since the last election. this is to try to reenact the march to bring national attention to the fact that voting rights is under assault. >> what are do you say to the argument and i know if we set aside the early voting, those

things that have been curtailed in the state. let's talk about voter id. what do you say to the argument who said what's wrong with showing id before you vote? >> we do show id. why do we not have to have state id when there is no appearance at all that there is a lost fraud. we investigated where the fraud is, they found something like 0.0003% of cases. it's like a solution looking for a problem. if you are going to disenfranchise five million people with a fraction of 1% that have been prosecuted, what are you doing for the greater good. there must be a different motive. the other thing i would raise is if there is not widespread fraud, why do we need a different id than when we voted for reagan or bush or clinton?

why are we chanling now when there is no problem? >> nobody produced evidence and why do you believe this will lead to suppression? will people not come to the poll fist they are asked for id? >> they will not come because they can't vote. we are already finding in various states people saying i can't register. i am shoep right here on the station where people said i barred from registering. what's going to be worse is when people show up to vote and denied the right to vote because they don't have the state id photo. in georgia, for example, you can if you are a student use id if you are no one state college, but if you are in a black college, it doesn't count. in texas, you can use the government, but not your student id. this will cause massive confusion and we want to turn it

around now. we feel what we are doing is to raise the issue so state legislators and the courts will have to deal with it. when we get to montgomery on friday, all of the organizations will lay out how to combat this. >> thank you very much. we will see you tonight at 6:00woman and every week night. we will be tackling this issue and more especially tonight. the opening bell just rang. a quick check here. we have a jobs report at the end of the week. what about the talk of iran and the oil markets. >> they have been coming down and they are down around $106. the good news is they are coming down and we are still looking at $100. we watched it bounce all over the place. opening bell looks like we will be opening up by about 20 points when things settle out.

the big concern is the jobs report and the big point to be watching throughout the week. he told us that this time around if we see another positive surprise to the upside, this would be three times in a row. he does think this lays down the case for another leg up for the s&p. that's wa we will be watching. three of anything is a trench. >> thank you, becky. a dive into super tuesday and the history of it stars in 30 seconds.

taking a deep dive into super tuesday's super stakes. they are criss crossing the country to make a push for delegates. i will do a handicapping of the map. the push over the weekend. mitt romney made stops where he is hoping win there is in at least two of the three states would end the republican nomination contest. >> i will tell you, georgia turns out for free pancakes. oh, my goodness. isn't that something? you guys are great to be here this morning. >> santorum is trying to narrow the field from four to two. stop in a place he expects to win, oklahoma. >> i ask for your help and support. this is a big election. ohio can make the difference. you always seem to be right in

the center. no matter what the election and no matter what it is, ohio is the key. >> ron paul made the furthest trek. he was in alaska after the washington state walk us. >> we don't know what will come out of the campaign, but the strategy of building delegates is sound for a position. >> building support is what super tuesday is about. for a generation, that's the closest we have come. tomorrow is a big day and features eleven states and does include the battle ground state of ohio. it hasn't always been the giant day where they rally around the candidate. we are taking a look at how it all started. the deputy political editor who helped us take a look. the history of super tuesday is only generational. >> after wins in michigan, arizona, and washington state over the weekend, mitt romney

hopes to wrap up with wins on super tuesday. they hope to make this a long fight and took a look back at how it start and why it has been so pivotal. >> the phrase first emerged in 1980 when three southern states, alabama, florida and georgia held primaries on the same day. it tame into its own in 1988 when 20 states voted on day. upset with the nomination of walter mondale, a liberal who lost every state but to ronald reagan, a dozen southern states banded together in hopes of picking a more moderate cantidate. michael dukakis, a governor from massachusetts won the nomination. >> i accept your nomination for the presidency. >> dukakis, al gore and jesse jackson split with dukakis winning northern states and gore did well in the deep south.

so did jack who won with black democrats that. same day, super tuesday did work for george h.w. bush. he won 16 of 17 states and the modern super tuesday was born. for the next four elections. anchored by vote-rich southern states sealed the deal for bill clinton in 1992. >> i fully understand why they call this super tuesday. >> bob dole in 96 and gush and gore in 2000. >> they don't call it super tuesday for nothing. >> john kerry in 04. in 2008 it was super diaper tuesday. hillary clinton and barack obama split states and delegates. clinton dominated primaries and obama the caucuses and a struggle ensued. obama didn't wrap up the race until clinton finally dropped out. the candidate for the national

following, john mccain ended the race, but again regional strategies emerged with huckabee focusing on the south and romney the heartland and mccain the only that went national. many states opted out. it's small by comparison. just 11 states hold the primaries and caucuses. the largest share up for grabs on any single day. the hopes of romney, santorum, gingrich and paul hang in the balance. three other tuesdays will be almost as important. super tuesday started as southern states wanting influence and wanting to limit the impact of early dates like iowa. instead we have gotten both important and canned days having to run national campaigns from the day they announced. by the way, it could be a year of multiple super tuesdays. lots of delegates at stake. may 8th and june 5th.

>> history could be made if mitt romney doesn't lock up this nomination. it would be the first thim they haven't locked occupy a super tuesday. thank you very much. eleven states in the mix. in total 424 delegates are up for grabs. all have collected in the entire primary so far. the poll from ohio, mid-romney is gaining on santorum and they are in a dead heat. let's look at what's going toha. what's a good night? it's 180 to 200 and the closer to 200 the more this thing gets basically ended here. he is going to dominate in thenp 39 there. in virginia he should win all of them and that's 46. we got to 85. now then there is ohio. as you heard from the romney

campaign, there at least nine delegates that san tor couple never get. santorum should definitely win because they border the state of pennsylvania. i think romney will get 35 delegates. 63 at stake, but he gets more than 50%. we have him well over 100. note what the strategies are in tennessee and georgia. it won't matter. he wants to win the east and central tennessee congressional districts. he wins those, i expect him to get from 18 to 20. if he loses. if he wins, the number gets higher. note where he spent his day. why? he can get as many as 20 delegates and finish third because he is going to probably win some of those congressional districts in and around. there is 8 to nine of them it. then the unknowns are in north

dakota and idaho. romney will win idaho, but what if he gets the majority. if it's less, he has 18 to 20 in north dakota, the walk us state is where ron paul wants to do well. we think romney gets ten out of there. that's where we came up. i got them as high as 211. 180 to 200 is a good night. below that, we will be worrying about the other tuesdays. our political panel will be here, but first the white house today as you guys love it so much. new england clam chowder. it's cold and snowy. y perfect soup. ah, welcome to hotels.com. if you're looking for a place to get together, you came to the right place. because here at hotels.com, we're only about hotels.

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>> i'm endorsing mitt romney in his presidency of the united states. >> we have known that the best man to lead the country for the next four years and ann will make a great first lady. >> michelle bernard is president of the bernard center for women in politics and public policy. a former clinton administration press secretary and editor in chief. i will start with you. the romminee. >> watching the final group of republicans come on board before the train hits the station. even the bush family saying okay, we will help campaign and our poll said fine, we will take romney. >> not winning michigan was a much more brutal blow than they

hoped. everyone is getting on board and the romney campaign took a page from the playbook to make the delegate map over and over and said look at the map and look at the calendar. look at the organizations and the resources. how does santorum get that he can't? >> he is el vibl for 369 of the 424 delegates. virginia and in ohio. he will never get those. >> not only just a question of whether or not he will get the delegates. we know he won't, but if you are going to be voting for the next president or the republican nominee, you have to ask yourself do i really want to vote for somebody who was so disorganized or lack the resores in order to get on the ballot in virginia. that's a huge problem. you can't just say we don't want the resources. it is a big deal. >> go ahead. >> this is the third cycle of

romney that is gone. >> every time you did that, that is where the ground falls. the conventional wisdom crowd. i like the romminee. >> every time is moves further. we have eric kantor on board who were on the sidelines. >> he is always worried. you know what's amazing is you look at the poll and i looked at this last minute hit on the health care mandate of romney all circulating and the democrats to try to slow down the romney inevitability. it reminds me and you look at the poll, there was room for a good conservative tom pain. the thing is he never faced a relationshipably good coombe pain. >> in a couple of respects. it couldn't have been a challenge on the social issues

on the right. not just a big threat, but a huge threat to barack obama. >> i am stunned. the one thing is romney had he ever has had to deal with three weeks of relitigating. are you shocked? >> totally shocking and you are seeing this "usa today" piece and making the point he was defending the mandate up until he got into this campaign. it is pretty surprising and he will turf assuming he is the nominee. >> funny you say that. you expect him to not be able to move as far to the middle as most would like to do when they are done with the primary. >> i think he doesn't have a choice. the problem is he doesn't have a choice. he will have to move to the middle. independents are completely

turned off by everything we have been seeing in this cycle. what's going to happen is when he tries to go a little bit more to the center, we will see romney has the flip flopper all over again and this "usa today"k about a gift for the obama cam pawn. >> clinton running, which was a brutal fight, is romney running? >> it becomes a two-way race between obama and romney. don't underestimate. >> don't you think they just won't show up? >> the romney campaign will try to make this about obama. if they succeed, the right will show up. they do not want four more ye s years. >> one thing that's going to be really interesting to watch, i think, over the course of the campaign is whether the republican party will be able to sort out what it stands for nationally. >> not this cycle. >> it may not happen.

we may wind up with the same thing. >> we're boing to talk about barack obama after the break. but trivia. name the state that's been the birthplace to the greatest number of presidents who were born as american citizens. the answer is ohio with seven presidents born there. all of them were american citizens at birth. eight presidents were born in virginia, but five were born as british subjects. we'll be right back. i think i'm goin-... shhh! we find that we don't need to sleep that much. there's an easier way to save. geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more.

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let's bring back the panel. president obama's political standing. if you describe it as a cocktail, one part obama, three parts the economy, one part republicans destroying each other. just to watch what they are doing with swing voters. it's shocking.

i thought republicans wouldn't be so negative about their own party. >> i mean, this primary has just isolated a lot of these guys. we were talking about this before we came on. the president has been criticized this within his own party x but he has established a record of being naive for doing it, but at least is being seen as reaching out to the other side. >> is that paying dividends? >> yeah. how did they allow us to have the debate on the culture war when we could have been talking about the economy. the president laid a good foundation of that. sometimes to the chagrin of his own party. but their mistakes have paid dividends. >> to the the center or right? look at iran. >> i know. >> the left is giving him a pass. >> but it doesn't make sense. i'm kwach iing the republican

candidates saying if president obama is reelected, you know, iran basically is going to destroy the united states. this is the president who is responsible for the demise of osama bin laden and all the things we are seeing. how can you argue he's weak on foreign policy. >> it's telegraphing to israel. >> it used to be henry kissinger that it it has no foreign policy, only domestic politics. that's increasingly true. >> i have to go to shameless plugs. michelle, you go first. >> march 14th look for the bernard center in hartford, connectic connecticut. >> on the subject of iran, read the great interview jeff goldberg did on the atlantic.com website. >> it's all out there. >> i second that. for people who want a break, allie wentworth has a new book

out. >> i know. atlantic city's e-mail es. the weirdest stories come from there. that's this edition of "the daily rundown." it's super tuesday tomorrow. coming up, "jansing and co." have a great day. ? . bye-bye.

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